Funnily enough Sri Lanka's Great Escape in the 1st Test at Lords last weekend was probably the best bit of work I've done in the last year's trading, even though we came out of the game breaking even. It could have been quite a lot better (I was pretty aggressive on size) and it could have been a cover-your-eyes-awful lot worse (I was extremely aggressive on size). I got in at the top and out towards the bottom and if I hadn't gone to work on Monday it all would have been plain sailing. Although Monday's trades were theoretically smart they didn't pay off but that's life and you have to "dance with the one what brung ya".
The first vindication for my Taleb-inspired concern with the limits of induction and the Black Swan problem, in so far as any randomness-related activity can ever be vindicated.
Saw the London Handel Festival production of Tolomeo on Monday night - they cut lots of the B sections of the da capo arias but as a result it hummed along. The singers were astoundingly good - all students at the RCM Opera Conservatoire. They have to be some of the best in the world.
On the subject of music I've added more Stolen Soul to the sidebar. Time to confess that I don't actually own a ridiculously cool collection of obscure soul 45s. No, I subscribe to Downtown Soulville, Mr Fine Wine's awesome show on WMFU.org which is easily available as a podcast. Then I butcher it with an MP3 splitter for your delectation. It is high time you all went over my head to the source (don't take my word for it alone).
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Induction's limits: fascinating stuff. I'd love to read more about reconciling the theoretical vulnerability of inductive reasoning with the rampant material success of classical science. And quantum theory of course, which through processes obscure to me has delivered the digital age, such as it is.
Have you read about Gerard t'Hoft btw? Seems there are determined states 'deeper' than anything previously proposed: the analogy in the article I read was of a kettle, and how we know that certain of the water molecules will end up outside of the kettle when boiled (determined) but it is not possible to pre-determine which molecules. A gross simplification of course but sufficiently comprehensible to hint at more difficult areas.
I seem to have gone off on one...
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