Wednesday, April 26, 2006

21:20 BST Wed 26th April

To Suffolk whilst there is no televised cricket to eat into my free time

Betsy, younger of the two Briards,



and Plum, a seriously easy-going cat,



engaged in a posing competition for the camera.



Meanwhile I have been hobbled by podiatrists waging chemical warfare on my nail beds. No dancing for months which can only be a good thing.

Posted by Picasa

Harriet Lidderdale McIlwaine



Born 15:44 on Monday 17th April 2006.






A valiant but ultimately doomed attempt at breastfeeding... Posted by Picasa

Monday, April 03, 2006

11:14 BST Mon 3rd April

Two quick questions.

1. When I decided to go to work on Sunday night at 11pm, stay up and watch the baseball then do the India-England ODI from 4 am till 12pm what exactly was I thinking.

2. Can anyone picture what Keith The Camel means by this:

"After the game it was off to leafy North London for Tony Bloom's birthday party. An eclectic mix of guests included various poker players and gamblers who arrived at regular intervals after getting busted out of the £200 tournament at the Vic. There were also a couple of the marketing types from Pokerstars who got very very drunk and spilt all sorts of interesting secrets about the company and some of their players. Undoubted highlight of the evening was watching Alex the Gent dance to Wham! I only wish I had some way of capturing the image. He looked like a goldfish on speed doing the breatstroke. Highly amusing. "

Oh dear oh dear oh dear.

Thursday, March 30, 2006

18:05 BST Thurs 30th Mar



The Southbank in Melbourne. I can remember vividly how hot the bridge was to touch. Thanks to Matt for sending me the photos. Posted by Picasa

18:06 BST Thurs 30th Mar



Busking outside Flinders Street Station. My Ray Charles impression didn't bring in the $$$ for some reason. Posted by Picasa

Wednesday, March 29, 2006

08:48 BST Wed 29th Mar

For the sake of something to do, and because of the immense sophistication of the industry-leading football traders at work, I am reading, at the most cursory and useless level, a few books on financial mathematics.

Quantitative sports analysis really kicked off with the advent of the personal computer. The Computer Group, adhoc pioneers of statistical sports analysis, were able to crunch the data, model the variables and produce some sharp numbers to bet the handicap and total points markets in American sports in late 1970s Vegas. They were able to attack less sophisticated competition. The sports bookmakers at the time produced prices which were more reflective of public supply and demand. Common knowledge is one thing but it comes from news stories, heuristics and gut feeling. Mathematical analysis allows for colder, clearer thinking and the Computer Group beat the NFL and NBA lines pretty comprehensively.

Baseball always resisted analysis. A sport which has a huge culture of statistics (eg a Society for American Baseball Research, no less) has in the main defied the sports quants, although the numbers produced by the bookies look pretty damn accurate before each game.

Cricket is also very hard to model mathematically. For one thing there aren't enough games from which to extract meaningful data. Off the top of my head I think there are around 500 international cricket matches per year. There are also many variables, such as the state of the wicket or the affect of the weather on ball movement, which determine the course of the game but which defy linear mathematical modelling since they are (perhaps) impossible to quantify.

If you could marry Black-Scholes with Duckworth-Lewis you might make a fortune. The problem of induction would more than likely get you though. The future ain't what it used to be.

Sunday, March 26, 2006

18:01 BST Sun 26th Mar



FOR SALE: Made to measure tweed suit (1999). Hardly worn. Suit extremely portly young fogey with fantasies of land ownership and grouse shooting. 48" chest, 42" waist, 31" inside leg. Double vented jacket (a mistake) and general second-rate cut.



Weight loss and change in circumstances forces sale. Not to be repeated opportunity as tailors (Bertie Wooster, Fulham Rd) now closing down. Cost: £580 new. Yours for £150 ONO, squire, can't say fairer than that.



Footnote: Not only does the imminent demise of Bertie Wooster mean that I can't flog the suit back to their secondhand dept (the pictures don't do it justice - in my fatter days I looked like a red-and-yellow check tweed version of the Graf Zeppelin) but also that for the sake of value I was compelled to expand my formal wardrobe.

Posted by Picasa

15:10 BST Sun 26th Mar

After a couple of weeks of burning the candle at both ends I'm finally enjoying a few days off.

I wasn't able to shake the jet lag for the first week and getting up at 3 am for work didn't help either. As a result I went to a casual singles party on the Saturday and fell asleep on a sofa halfway through. I woke with a start at 4 am, apologised and rushed off to the office. Not smooth. I carried the hangover and abiding sense of idiocy for the whole of that Sunday.

Cheltenham was cold, grey and devoid of success. I no longer bet on racing in the belief that I can really make money but rather for a little bit of fun - a quickened pulse and certain satisfaction in being right/getting lucky. This year's Festival brought home to me the realisation that I don't even get excited about winning or losing any longer. In fact the whole idea of betting just generates a faint agita in me. The way to win money is by sniping away on the margins with high turnover and low variance. It's not worth the candle in today's markets. I also no longer want to be in with the tweedy, Hooray crowd. I will keep my hat but was frustrated in my effort to sell my tweed suit [qv].

By far the highlights of that week were the Gothic Nightmares exhibition at the Tate and a performance of Hercules at the Barbican. I confess: for all the potential preteniousness and so on I just get much more satisfaction and enjoyment out of high culture than other 'leisure' activities. Roll on Ruisdael and Michelangelo.

I went to the rugby, had supper with a friend, stayed with the soon-to-be-gutted Lord and Lady Miros, worked the 3rd Test and disgraced myself at the boss's birthday party. Details not suitable for publication.

Through all this whirl I hadn't been exercising to give my knee a chance to recover. There had also been much drinking and pre-racing fried breakfast action so I have gained 5 lbs. I feel bloody dreadful - like a sack of shit again.

Finally yesterday I hauled ass off to Richmond Park and strode out cautiously on the crushed sand and grassy verge of the Tamsin Trail. After 24 minutes the aching returned and I knew I would only make things worse by continuing so I shamefully walked back cross-country.

The park was full of the Saturday morning runners and cyclists who, by dint of their sweaty action, make the lame or lazy feel unmanned. "Why have you stopped when we, the Master Race, are continuing?" is the implied accusation, and it's hard not to feel a little like someone in a Bateman cartoon. I exaggerated my limp as I got closer to their hive (the car park at Roehampton to be exact.)

So now I am trawling the web for treatments for Patellofemoral Pain Syndrome and it looks like I'll be joining a gym, working on my quad strength and swimming furiously for six weeks.

It's going to be light for an hour later this evening, I had my first cricket net this morning and summer is only a few weeks away. I'll be below 15 stone again with three weeks and at my apogee by late May. There - targets!

Monday, March 13, 2006

15:06 GMT Mon 13th

If anyone reading this doesn't own Aladdin Sane by His Davidness then pop down to iTunes, download Cracked Actor, Time and Prettiest Star and send me the bill.


Cracked Actor

I've come on a few years from my Hollywood Highs
The best of the last, the cleanest star they ever had
I'm stiff on my legend, the films that I made
Forget that I'm fifty cause you just got paid

Crack, baby, crack, show me you're real
Smack, baby, smack, is that all that you feel
Suck, baby, suck, give me your head
Before you start professing that you're knocking me dead
Oh stay
Please stay
Please stay

You caught yourself a trick down on Sunset and Vine
But since he pinned you baby you're a porcupine
You sold me illusions for a sack full of cheques
You've made a bad connection 'cause I just want your sex

Crack, baby, crack, show me you're real
Smack, baby, smack, is that all that you feel
Suck, baby, suck, give me your head
Before you start professing that you're knocking me dead
Oh yeah
Oooh stay
For a day
Oh yeah
Don't you dare
Oh yeah
yeah
yeah
yeah
Hoo
Hoo
Yeah

Thursday, March 09, 2006

17:17 GMT Thurs 9th

  • London is cold, wet, grey, clogged, home to a society characterised by massive economic inequality and thoroughly unappealing.
  • My car's heater started making a whirring noise before Christmas. It went away if you switched it off. I took it to a garage in Hampton Court at the end of January - they ripped me off (or at least tried to be deceptive instead of honest) but fixed it so that the noise only occurred when the fan motor was off. They seemed to break the windscreen washers at the same time though. Taking the car to a VW/Audi specialist near work I idly thought I'd get both problems looked at. The noise is a tough problem they said, after poking around in the innards all day. Frankly we don't think it's worth spending up to a grand fixing it, since you can drive around with the motor running on low and there is no problem. Come back next week and we'll fix the screen wash. As I drive away I discover to my horror that their investigations have made the noise a) worse and b) permanent. It drives me crazy.
  • My right knee ached slightly after running round Richmond Park yesterday (58m 47s, since you ask). Then it locked up in surprising pain midway through the morning.

Can't walk, can't drive, don't want to be here.

End of moan.

Wednesday, March 08, 2006

05:21 GMT Wed 8th Mar



30,000 miles. £-19,450. Five new pairs of shoes and a suntan. Posted by Picasa

Saturday, March 04, 2006

22:49 NZT Sat 4th

Weighed in, weighed in.  The fifth and final ODI is in the books.  Frustratingly the West Indies scraped home and won with two balls and three wickets in hand.  I got a half-decent price about NZ on the toss, although key slow bowler Daniel Vettori was being rested.  

I can’t be arsed to explain what happened but it was another frustrating small loss, bringing the tour to a sour, small-medium loss in total.

Tomorrow I have to check out by 11 am and have eleven hours to fill until NZ018 tries to make it back across the Pacific.  Seems unlikely.  I plan to swim and exercise my nuts off in Centennial for at least four hours and maybe sunbathe.

-

I feel very trapped by the job at the moment.  People are envious of me and with good reason.  Non-industry people marvel that I can get paid for watching cricket and punting on it.  Industry cognoscenti know who I work for and what a privilege that is.

I don’t think I’m any good at this job.  I can guess at percentages blind and normally come up with a pip or two of the market.  Woop-de-fucking…  Proof positive that I can think like everyone else.  I eked out crumbs of value and then shat it all away in an unreasoned and unlucky trade in the third game.

Fundamentally this is a five year position.  There aren’t old traders and you don’t make partner.  No-one retires with a long service clock.  The very best go off and make fortunes on their own bat, the good make a living and there are lots and lots of thirty- and forty-somethings on the scrapheap.

You are also at the mercy of events which are beyond your control a great deal.  The long run is supposed to take care of the variance but with cricket having so few games means that you take much longer to get there.

Beyond which you trade in markets and you don’t control the character of those markets.  Theory would suggest that they become more efficient and harder to beat as they become more liquid.  Alternatively they could dry up.  With the commission charged by the websites and the bookies’ percentages taking money out of circulation you need a pool of losers pumping money in.  These are zero-sum games  and for there to be a winner there must be a loser.  Darwinian selection is at work – the strong prosper and the weak get eaten.  What if the weak find something they like more than being eaten or someone drains the lagoon?  You have hungry sharks flapping their gills on the dry sandbanks, gasping for air.

I haven’t shown good results over the last two months.  I don’t have confidence in my abilities or methodology at the moment.  I can muddle through this using bluff and guesswork for a couple of years maybe, hoping for a little luck.  It’s not a basis for the rest of my life though.

-

And another thing.  One for the oxymoron list.  “Here’s another X-List Classic from Ocean Colour Scene.”  It made me wince.

Wednesday, March 01, 2006

11:26 NZT Thurs 2nd

Sunday. I had been met at the airport by my contact. Effectively he was a total stranger, albeit one who I have spent a hundred hours talking to on Messenger for work. He turned out to be even nicer than I hoped, giving me a tour of Melbourne and taking me for lunch on Fitzroy Rd with his wife and dog.

Right from the moment we left the airport I was regretting the fact that I only had one full day in Melbourne. The only solution was to pack as much in as possible.

Even if I had flown in straight from New York or Chicago I would still have been impressed by the atmosphere and sights of Melbourne straight off the bat. Coming from Christchurch in a bad mood it was like a vision of paradise.

The skyline and buildings are very modern but driving around St Kilda the scale was much smaller and more human than an American city. People spilled everywhere, looking relaxed and happy.

Not being ‘on duty’ for the SA-Aus ODI I had that hot bath, opened a bottle of Lindauer and watched the first 20 overs in a drunken, fluffy bath-robed haze from the comfy chair, before passing out. See passage below re: hard work.

Monday. Here we go. Hotel gym at eight, lavish hotel breakfast at nine, shopping at nine fifteen.

Thank god I didn’t buy anything in Christchurch. There is no criteria under which I can be judged an enthusiastic or able shopper but my eyes were opened slightly last year under some expert tutelage.

Besides you could pluck someone from an undiscovered rainforest tribe and drop them in Melbourne at ten a.m. with only a bone through their nose and the tribal credit card. By five o’clock they would be fretting about the wash on the last pair of jeans they bought and whether they should go back and look at the watch they found again. It's entirely possible that they could have found somewhere selling nose bones a la mode.

There is nowhere in the world where I have seen so many fantastic shops in one place.

I did the malls north of Swanston St with a fair amount of success before meeting Matt and Sal for seafood on the SouthBank. They were extremely well and very happy to put up with me dragging them down Chapel St despite being on their own quest to buy a banjo.

Chapel St is a long, straight drag crammed with shops. Some of them, probably more than I realised, were chain stores but since these were stores that don’t exist in the UK it didn’t matter. Fundamentally the clothes were much more stylish, cheaper and generally better than anything I have seen in the UK for a while.

The haul eventually amounted to: three pairs of shoes, two pairs of sandals, one pair of jeans, one pair of shorts, five T/polo/rugby/shirts and a pair of sunglasses. Everything that I bought is at least two steps up the style ladder from my current wardrobe.

If a small red warning light didn’t start blinking in Mastercard HQ then it ought to have done.

I rode a couple of trams and savoured the Melbourne city culture – a lot of happy and conspicuously well-dressed people bathed in sunshine.

In the evening I went back to St Kilda with my contact and his wife. We ate Mexican on Acland Rd and had a great time. On the way home I wandered through the Crown Casino, listened to the hordes of Chinese gamblers and stuck my head into the poker room, before heading back to The Westin tired and extremely happy.

Wednesday. Spent Tuesday flying back to Christchurch and incurring a $60 excess baggage charge on the way. Henceforth I shall be known as Imelda. Back in the Hotel Offthesquare in sleepy, backwoods Christchurch with another hateful cricket match in prospect.

There isn’t really much to say about the game. The Windies won the toss and bowled first. The decision was a poor one because it was a flat wicket and a hot day. It was done purely so injured all-rounder Dwayne Bravo could play as supersub and perhaps add some weight to their batting. Most times captains make the best decision on the evidence and experience available to them. Subsequent events (often luck but sometimes factors which were foreseen but not given the right weighting) may show their decision up as poor but that isn’t something which they could control. In this case the decision was clearly wrong.

Vexatiously the Windies bowled quite well upfront and the market behaved a little counter-intuitively. I hitched a couple of small carts to the Caribbean wagon because of the prices. The Kiwis then hit forty runs from nine scoring shots (the minxes) and the game went out of the reach of my brave lads. Bastardos.

Unlike last Saturday I sat on my hands and took my medicine. Instead of getting depressed about prospect of showing a loss on the trip I let my mind wander back to my two amazing days in Melbourne and the memories were more than enough to make me very happy.

Sunday, February 26, 2006

18:43 EST Sun 26th

I haven't slept since the last post. You would think that having been in the air for four and a half hours on two flights after such a horror day that I would be a wreck - foul tempered, listless and smelly.

I'm in a 5* Hotel room in the wonderful, amazing, fabulous city of Melbourne. My jojoba scented bath is running so I won't keep you.

Melbourne stands a serious chance of displacing New York as my favourite city. I am already horrified that within 48 hours I will have left. Three weeks wouldn't be enough.

More later. The bubbles are calling.

Saturday, February 25, 2006

22:04 NZT Sat 25th

Saturday. A horrible day devoid of positives. For the first time I want to come home.

The fun continues since today is not even close to being over. I have a flight to Auckland tomorrow morning at 05:50. Since I am transferring on to an international flight I need to check it at least an hour early. The desks open at 04:30, so I have just booked a cab for 4 am. I dare not go to sleep so with Super XIV rugby, Woody Allen’s Take The Money And Run on DVD and caffeine pills I will try to stay awake all night and then sleep on the planes.

I did my betty swollocks on the 3rd ODI. I traded throughout the game, working money back and forth.

The first quarter, as it were, went swimmingly but (with the benefit of hindsight) I should not to be deceived. Things broke for me but that was just luck.

The second quarter was frustrating and I wound up back to square one by halftime. Flat, level, even stevens.

The third quarter was abominable. I found a value bet on NZ, watched it go up in smoke whilst being unable to close out and lock in my loss because the market got thin and the Indians raced 3 or 4% ahead of me.

I eventually took an appallingly short price not because it was value but because I was desperate to limit the damage. The fixers swung into action. Wires hummed, certain phones rang and then rang off immediately, the special flag was put out on the West Indian balcony and their super-aggressive start instantly crumbled into dust.

It’s only money. Rather, it’s only lots of money.

The fourth quarter could have been worse. I took more non-smart risk and clawed back a few thousand but it was still carnage.

Now I can handle losing - sounds funny but it is actually a key skill. What gnaws at me is that I know I played this game like a **** when things went wrong, on more than one trade. That’s the real failing – making poor, rushed, risk-stupid decisions with someone else’s money.

Back to winning a bag of sweets on the tour, with two dead rubber games left and limited confidence.

I have never been a hard worker. Even on Thursday when I went off to the library in Christchurch to put my head down and get on with a very good book I only flicked idly through the pages and made cursory notes. This explains why I am a gambler, trying to make something for nothing. No-one succeeds without hard work and I'm not trying hard enough.

-

I swam yesterday, feeling guilty for overeating through boredom in the last few days. I felt quite good running this morning, but didn’t beat my previous time by more than ten seconds, which was very disappointing. Either I am getting fatter or my effort on Wednesday made me feel so bad because I was close to my limits, which would explain the lack of improvement. I'm not working hard enough towards these goals either.

Drat drat and double drat.

-

I'm only blogging this to motivate myself in the future. Memento mori and all that.

Thursday, February 23, 2006

22:29 NZT Thur 23rd

Facial Discrimination

Warning: this post contains dangerously high levels of vanity.

In twenty minutes I’m going to place a call to the office of my father’s dentist, a Harley Street practitioner. Something my father said makes me think that Dr Searson, a South African by birth, was in the Police Service over there once upon a time.

I will have to grovel for not having been to the dentist since before university. Grovel for not having had my maxilla broken as a teenager and my face re-set. Grovel for still sucking my thumb at the age of twenty-seven. Grovel for having an utterly asymmetric face as a result.

My mother says that the orthodontist in Kew, who was so keen to go to work with chisel and pliers in 1991, burst out of his office, strode up to her and demanded to examine her jaw. He hadn’t seen a case like mine and wanted to check out the genetic antecedents. Lucky Mummy’s jaw is fine, as are the jaws of my lucky father and lucky brother.

Not so lucky here.

The mandible sticks out at funny angles, skews sideways at the front and the back and means that I have a prodigious underbite. By way of reinforcement I have dreadful fangs and twisted teeth too. The maxilla seems set too far back in my mouth too.

In all likelihood it would be easiest to get a replacement head direct from the manufacturer.

So in twenty minutes (in fact in ten minutes now) I will place this call, write off the tens of thousands it will take to get fixed and begin the three year procession towards the sunlit uplands of straight white teeth. I forget the context (might well be in Experience) but Martin Amis wrote of his journey, via some horrific sounding maxillo-facial surgery, to the “land of heads thrown back in wide smiles, gloopy kisses and fine dining.”

Of course, Negative Capability will be carrying exclusive coverage of my bloody and drawn-out engagement with complicated orthognathic, orthodontic and cosmetic dentistry. I expect the parts where they break bone will make the grittiest entries. One day I may even smile about the whole business.

-

Had a good haircut, though it is a bit shorter than normal and if I am totally honest makes me look gay. I might have to play up to this. The place I found is outwardly quite traditional, aimed at the gruff, tough hetrosexual men of Christchurch and staffed by friendly women. They're all about grooming and along with haircuts and wet shaves also offer ‘treatments.' I am weirdly attracted to the idea of a facial and a back wax. Well, why not?

I will be in Melbourne on Sunday and Monday so I have delayed the shopping until I have been there. Doubtless there will be a much bigger choice of better stuff. Looking forward to seeing Matt and Sal for lunch on Monday.

-

22:10 GMT 8 Mar

" The gadget [a large, temporary and uncomfortable restraining bridge] was brought into the room, and shyly awaited its introduction. Here it came, my ticket to good looks and fine dining, to the head thrown back in vivid laughter, to nuzzling and honeying, to goopy kisses."

Amis, M., Experience, (London: Jonathan Cape, 2000), p. 123.

Wednesday, February 22, 2006

10:00 NZT Thurs 23rd

The very warm sunshine has gone. As I write it is pelting down with rain outside. Seems like ideal blogging weather. I have already been here for one week. Where did it go?

I’m considering a minor makeover and might go out later for a haircut and a little bit of casual clothes shopping. This may not be entirely unrelated to the lingering Itch, which of course remains thoroughly unscratched.

-

Wednesday. I put a shocking effort into my run round Hagley Park in the morning and very nearly dogged out. Shameful. I had better beat 36m 34s by a minute or more next time out. Were all those nights plodding round Battersea Park and along the Embankment in vain?

Despite the world and his weather forecaster predicting floods and plagues of frogs for Queenstown Sky NZ crossed to the ground at 10am where there was bright sunshine and the captains were ready for the toss. I had to drop everything and get the trading screens set up.

The ground at Queenstown is in the most incredible setting; on the edge of fjord, surrounded by towering, jagged mountains (the Remarkables) and right next to an airport.

NZ won the toss and bowled. The wicket was evidently slow, spotted with crowns of grass (these are bogeys since they can cause the ball to do funny things on impact) and generally unhelpful for batting.

The Windies plodded along scoring runs intermittently and losing wickets rather more frequently. After ten overs the score was 10/2 and little old contrarian me was beavering away laying 1.07 (about 1-13) about the New Zealanders.

Note: When betting, be it on cricket, horses, flies crawling up a window pane or poker, my aim is to find bets where the odds (which represent a reward/risk ratio) I am taking diverge from the aggregate probabilities of the possible outcomes. When people talk of 'value' in betting they mean this divergence - finding something you can buy for less than you perceive it be worth.

Without resorting too much to stereotypes and oversimplification I hope that the average person tries to think in terms of “what will happen” – picking a single, linear path of reasoning/guesswork. In a simple sense the human brain is wired to reason things through in terms of stories and cause-and-effect.

I attempt to step back from that and consider the fuller spectrum of possibilities. In cricket all manner of events can occur which will determine the outcome of the game. The probabilistic basis is very fluid and can change quickly. I then guess my way towards an estimate (couched as a percentage which can then be translated back into odds) of all the possible paths towards one side winning. It is all massively subjective. At heart I make educated guesses, try to be more right than everyone else and hope to get lucky.

As it happened I considered that New Zealand were going to win the game nine times out of ten from this point. The market said thirteen times out of fourteen, so there is a small potential profit margin in opposing the Kiwis at this price, if I am arrogant enough to think that I somehow can outperform the rest of the world aggregated together as a market.

Wavell Hinds scored a fluent 76 in the lower middle order and the Windies scraped their way up to 200.

This wasn’t a challenging total but the market still made NZ too short. I have some theories about why that is but can’t begin to outline them here. I need coffee, forty minutes and a whiteboard and neither of us want that, do we? Loath as I am to throw money away I had topped up. The overall position, including a small side bet, was close on -10k NZ + 112k WI.

You can imagine my excitement when the Windies reduced New Zealand to 13/4 in the fourth over of the Kiwi innings.

I did something quite filthy when Scott Styris fell with the score at 49/5 and laid 1.90 about the Windies for 30k, to bring my net position to +20k NZ +85k WI. Filthy because I laid odds that were a fair bit over my estimated probabilities just to lock in a profit. I am weak and want to go back to the office showing a decent return on the jaunt.

In the long run giving away these small clips of value here and there adds up. There will be many, many occasions where I lose the money staked on the initial lays. In the long run doing what I did is cutting back my profits, whilst my losses would probably run unchecked. Hedging in this way looks great in the short term but fundamentally doesn’t do profit and loss that much good in that all-important five year timeframe. The real Amos Mantra is “It’s A Marathon, Not A Sprint.”

There are caveats to this, relating to money management and the psychological well-being of the trader him or herself. It’s a great boost to win, not least because it normally means not losing. I have read references to studies where psychologists say gamblers register the pain of loss at two-and-a-half times the intensity that they feel the pleasure of winning, assuming that you can somehow quantify emotional feeling. I'll ask the expert.

Brendon McCullum, Peter ‘Lucky Fish’ Fulton and Daniel ‘Get Out Ya Fucker’ Vettori steered the Kiwis home. I won small, if you can call 20k small, and it looks like a great trade. I caught the top and the bottom of the market on the Kiwis and will probably return to London in the black now. But for forty minutes I had the scent of six figures in my nostrils and it was very, very sweet indeed.

-

Maybe I’ll get my hair shorn and dye the stubble blonde to celebrate. The one thing I will do is remove Poker from the interests listed in my Profile. Horrid game. I haven’t played seriously for months and have absolutely no desire to do so anymore.

Tuesday, February 21, 2006

07:11 NZT Wed 22nd

Looks like rain is going to severely affect the ODI today at Queenstown. I am off running now - perhaps my betting brain will function better when out of breath.

People have remarked in the past about the levels of frankness and openess in my blog. Two things to note: 1) what about the things I don't say? and 2) you ain't seen nothing.

Monday, February 20, 2006

Editor's Note

This blog has 'perudo' as part of the URL - chosen because I enjoyed the game, which is Liar's Poker played with dice and therefore quite close to my interests/occupation/sickness of gambling and games.

I also gave it the title Negative Capability quite recently, having experimented with 'You Can't Eat It' - a diet reference which tipped its hat to the Amos Mantra - "You Can't Eat Value".

In Woody Allen's Manhattan (1979) Diane Keaton's character serves up a nicely observed piece of bullshit art criticism - "... it [a steel cube] had a marvellous kind of negative capability."

Now I find that not only has Philip Pullman been sniffing around this but also that arch bad boy, John Keats, got there first!

Do I accept the weighted literary overtones of my newly pretentious blog title (maybe writing some long winded disclaimer on the way, to wit) or should I rename it again?

Whilst considering the problem in its thorny whole why not head over to http://www.lestalenslyriques.com/welcome.htm, click on the blinking musical note and then on the 2nd (yellow) note from the left in the DSL/Cable section, assuming that you have the necessary speakers/ears combination in place.

19:40 NZT Mon 20th

The Deal – Seinfeld.

INT. NIGHT. JERRY AND ELAINE ARE SITTING AT EXTREME ENDS OF THE COUCH. ELAINE FLICKS AIMLESSLY THROUGH THE CHANNELS.

ELAINE
Hey, look at the naked people

JERRY
No, I don't wanna see the naked people.

ELAINE
Been a while?

JERRY
I have a vague recollection of doing something with someone, but it was a long, long time ago.

ELAINE
I think my last time was in Rochester. My hair was a lot shorter.

JERRY
I remember that it's a good thing. Someday, I hope to do it again.

-

I’ll admit it. Sunshine, hotel room, expense account. Christchurch pullulates with attractive, half-naked women and I’m randy as hell. That is, within the confines of my sex 'drive' which is monastically low.

For the record my hair was a LOT shorter. Australia were still clinging to the Ashes. As the World's Most Perenially Single Man this shouldn't be a surprise.

I really should rethink my strategy. This morning the dawn horn impelled me to take the laptop off to the upmarket cafĂ© where I have breakfast most days. Jeans, crumpled light navy blue linen shirt, crumpled cotton Nick Ashley blazer. I did some work on Excel whilst playing Handel’s Orlando and daydreaming of Glyndebourne and Goodwood. Pretentious, moi?

Were some dazzling brunette with a fascination for posho life in Sussex and a penchant for crumpled clothing to wander by - well, she wouldn't know what had hit her. If I was a betting man I'd say 1.5kg of Dell laptop would be a strong favourite though.

As it happened beautiful women did smile at me, but only because I was gawping at them in the manner of Bingo Little’s lovelorn expression in Wodehouse – like a calf dying of dyspepsia. I may have felt like the bee's cheese sitting there with my earbuds, the Home Team % Expectancy Formulae in Column J and a four shot latte half-drunk but I must have looked like a royal wally.

I think probabilistically that the Monday morning breakfast pull is up there with seeing Elvis and Shergar win the Stewards Cup from a middle draw on soft ground, which makes it only fractionally less likely than any other non-event in my non-sex-life.

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Having turned my face, neck and arms a vivid and shrimpy pink at the football yesterday I doused those parts with Factor 15 before heading back to the QEII, to go swimming and then watch some of the Canterbury – Central Districts 4 day cricket match. It was frustrating on arrival to find that I’d left the suncream in the hotel and couldn’t lie in the strong sun all day to get the legs and torso to match.

To borrow Marcus Berkmann’s analogy, Ingmar Bergman would have appreciated the pace of NZ domestic cricket for its fatalistic Nordic stillness. Canterbury were racing along at 99/1 from 37 overs when I arrived and 220/3 after tea when I left. Poor old Min Patel of Kent and England went for 59 from 15 overs, including a dismissively huge six from his second ball. It wasn’t the most thrilling game ever but I’m looking forward to going back tomorrow. The 50m pool is pretty good too, although I can't do two consecutive lengths of front crawl over that distance. I can run 7.2 miles round Richmond Park in less than 57 minutes but ask me to swim 100m and I have to use breaststroke.