ICC Champions Trophy

I would respectfully suggest that the 10-1 offered by William Hill on New Zealand winning the ICC Trophy is a very fair bet. NZ face Australia in their group and if they won that a likely semi against England but this is reflected in the price. No easy task then but they are capable of winning both those games - the team is a good group of experienced one-day players with stars like Vettori, Cairns and Jacob Oram who have all recovered from injury. Although Stephen Fleming's captaincy during the recent Test series against England was underwhelming he was hamstrung by injuries and some very poor bowling. In the ODI sphere he is shrewd and NZ played well during the Nat West Series against England and the West Indies.

Received wisdom is that the white ball will move around a good deal for the first hour and a half of these games (which start at 10.15) because of the heavy dew which normally hasn't evaporated by that point. I'd also add that spin will be more of a factor as well - English wickets have been cultivated for five months now and are normally more worn and dusty by this point in the season. Not only are NZ's bowlers experienced in these conditions (which are broadly comparable with those in NZ) but their batsmen know how to cope with seam and swing movement as well.

A bit of luck with the toss and that 10-1 could look very big - no layers are offering more than that on Betfair and backers would have to pay commission on their winning. As value bets go they're right up there.